TP53 Variant Allele Frequency and Therapy-Related Setting Independently Predict Survival in Myelodysplastic Syndromes with Del(5q)

Background:

According to the international consensus classification (ICC), diagnosis of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) with del(5q) requires presence of i) del5q, alone or associated with no more than one other cytogenetic abnormality, exclusive of -7/del(7q), ii) <5% bone marrow (BM) and <2% circulating blasts, and iii) the absence of “multi-hit” TP53 (Arber et al. Blood 2022;140: 1200). We have recently reported on TP53 variant allele frequency (VAF) ≥22% being the sole genetic predictor of inferior survival in MDS-del(5q) (Fleti. et al. AJH 2023;98:E76). In the current study, we examined the additional prognostic impact of therapy-related setting, in the context of TP53 VAF and other risk factors.

Methods:

The current study included patients with MDS-del(5q) who were seen at the Mayo Clinic or Moffitt Cancer Center, USA. Diagnosis of MDS-del(5q) and therapy-related qualification was according to ICC criteria (Arber et al. Blood 2022;140: 1200), with the exception that patients with biallelic or multi-hit TP53 were included to allow unbiased analysis of impact on prognosis. Patient selection was based on availability of mutation information from next-generation sequencing (NGS). The latter was assessed either at diagnosis or at different time points during the disease course, but at least 3 months before leukemic transformation. Otherwise, all analyses, including estimation of overall and leukemia-free survival, were based on variables collected at time of initial diagnosis of MDS-del(5q). TP53 mutation VAF threshold of 22% was considered based on our previously published report cited above. Age cutoff at 67 years was determined by ROC analysis. Conventional statistical methods were applied using JMP Pro 16.0.0 software (SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA).

Results:

A total of 210 patients (median age 72 years; 65% females), meeting the above-stipulated criteria for MDS-del(5q), were considered: 172 primary and 38 therapy-related. Table 1 outlines clinical and laboratory characteristics obtained at the time of diagnosis: 42% were transfusion-dependent, 69% had hemoglobin level <10 g/dL, 30% platelet count <150 x 10(9)/L, and 15% carried additional cytogenetic abnormality. NGS data performed either at diagnosis or at least 3 months prior to leukemic transformation was available in 146 patients; the most frequent mutations were TP53 (21%), SF3B1 (16%), DNMT3A (12%), TET2 (12%), ASXL1 (10%), and JAK2 (7%) (Table 1). At a median follow-up of 3.9 years (range 0.002-18.5) for living patients, 95 (45%) deaths and 34 (16%) leukemic transformations were recorded; treatment undertaken included lenalidomide in 162 (77%) cases.

NGS data-exclusive multivariable analysis that included all 210 patients identified therapy-related setting (p<0.01; HR 2.9; Figure 1a), age >67 years (p=0.01; HR 1.8), transfusion-dependency (p=0.04; HR 1.5), and platelet count <150 x 10(9)/L (p=0.03; HR 1.6), as independent predictors of inferior survival. The significant effect of age and platelet count was sustained when analysis was limited to patients with primary MDS-del(5q) but lost when applied to therapy-related disease. NGS data-inclusive multivariable analysis, which was applicable to the subset of 146 patients, identified, as risk factors, therapy-related setting (p<0.01; HR 2.3) and TP53 VAF ≥22% (p<0.01; HR 2.4; Figure 1b) while age >67 years sustained borderline significance (p=0.07; HR 1.8). Figure 1c depicts survival data based on the presence or absence of TP53 VAF ≥22% and therapy-related qualification; low-risk with no risk factors (N=112; median survival 11.7 years; 5/10-year survival 73%/52%) and high-risk with one or both risk factors (N=34; median survival 4 years; 5/10-year survival 42%/14%); leukemia-free survival was affected by TP53 VAF ≥22% (p<0.01) but not therapy-related setting (p=0.13).

Conclusions:

The current study highlights TP53 VAF and therapy-related setting as the most prominent risk factors for survival in MDS-del(5q) and proposes a simple risk model that distinguishes patients with a projected 10-year survival that exceeds 50%, in the absence of both risk factors, and plummets to 14%, in the presence of one of the two risk factors. Accordingly, allogeneic stem cell transplant might be deferred in the former instance while it should be pursued sooner than later, in the latter instance.