Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS)-Determining Clonal Events at Presentation of Aplastic Anemia (AA)

Historically, the evolution rate of aplastic anemia (AA) to MDS approaches 15% in 10 yrs; thus, AA can be considered a major predisposition factor for secondary MDS (sMDS). The likely etiology includes expansion of a preexisting clone or truly late clonogenic events.  In both instances, progression can be a result of a clonal escape, but confirmation of the presence of mutant cells at presentation would indicate that initial autoimmune processes may represent a tumor surveillance reaction.   

We studied 326 patients with AA and 47 patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) and identified 36 cases (progression rate: 11% in median follow up of 6 years) that evolved to MDS or AML (median time to progression: 3.2 yrs.; transplanted patients were not censored). Cytogenetic analysis upon progression showed abnormal karyotype in 83% of cases; 7% had complex karyotype and -7/del(7q) was present in 62% of cases. The presence of a PNH clone was detected in 17% of cases that transformed to sMDS vs. 35% in non-progressors (P=.1).   For comparison, we have also analyzed primary de novo cases of MDS (pMDS) with (N=94) and without (N=557) -7/del(7q). In contrast to sMDS, -7/del(7q) was present in 14.4% of cases in pMDS.

Because sMDS following AA or PNH included a high proportion of patients with -7/del(7q), we compared sMDS with -7/del(7q) to pMDS with -7/del(7q) for coexisting mutational events. Mutations in RUNX1, CBL, SETBP1 and ASXL1 appeared to be more frequent in sMDS vs. pMDS (28.6% vs. 2.1%, 21.4% vs. 2.1%, 21.4% vs. 5.3%, 21.4% vs. 10.6%, P=.003, P=.02, P=.07, P=.37, respectively).  In contrast, TP53 and DMT3A were more common in pMDS (7.1% for sMDS vs. 17%, 0% for sMDS vs. 8.5%, P=.69, P=.59). Similarly, there were several other distinctive differences between all sMDS and pMDS irrespective of the cytogenetics:  mutations in SF3B1, SRSF2, NPM1, DNMT3A were common in primary AML but entirely absent from cases after AA; mutations in RUNX1 and SETBP1 appeared to be more frequent in sMDS vs. pMDS (26.3% vs. 8.3%, 21.1% vs. 3.2%, 15.8% vs. 3.9%, P=.03, P=.005, respectively).

Whole exome NGS was performed after progression, with confirmed somatic mutations subsequently tracked back by targeted deep NGS applied to serial samples starting at initial presentation. Confirmed mutational events and chromosomal aberrations were found in 19/36 patients with sMDS; 17/19 cases of sMDS had at least 1 confirmed somatic mutation.   Remarkably, in retrospective analysis in 6/7 cases studied serially, at least one of the identified mutations was detectable at presentation when deep targeted sequencing (depth 5,000~20,000 reads) was performed.  In 5 of these cases the alterations appeared to be ancestral events for sMDS evolution. When anadditional 77 AA or PNH cases were studied by deep sequencing, somatic mutations were present in 48% of AA patients at presentation.  Detection of clonal events at presentation was associated with an increased risk of subsequent MDS evolution (14/37 mutant cases vs. 3/40 nonclonal cases evolved, P=.002). Mutations found at both initial presentation and upon evolution were suggestive of a slow expansion of previously cryptic clones (ASXL1, CUX1, TET2, CBL, RUNX1, and SETBP1).  Patients with these genes (n=18) had worse overall survival compared to patients without these mutations (P=.03). To assess the potential impact of immunosuppressive therapies (IST), we also investigated a subset (out of 77) of 53 patients (39 responders and 14 refractory cases) following IST. Clonal somatic events were identified in 27 of them, but there was no association between the response to IST and somatic mutations at presentation.

Our results demonstrate that while subclonal mutations indicative of oligoclonal hematopoiesis are frequent in AA, the presence of permissive ancestral somatic events at the outset of AA predisposes patients to sMDS, a feature that had diagnostic and prognostic implications.