Predictors of Early Death and Survival Among Children, Adolescents and Young Adults with Acute Myeloid Leukemia in California, 1988-2011: A Population-Based Study

Background  A better understanding of factors associated with early death and survival may guide future health policy aimed at improving outcomes among children, adolescents and young adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). 

Methods We examined trends in early death and survival among 3,935 patients aged 0–39 years diagnosed with de novo AML in California during 1988–2011. We estimated overall survival and applied logistic and Cox regression to evaluate the association between sociodemographic and selected clinical factors with early death and survival.

Results There was a trend towards decline in early death from 9.7% in 1988–1995 to 7.1% in 2004–2011 (P=0.062). Survival improved substantially over time, but 5-year survival was still only 50% (95% CI 47%–53%) even in the most recent calendar period. Overall, the main factors associated with poor outcomes were older age at diagnosis, treatment at hospitals not affiliated with National Cancer Institute  (NCI)-designated cancer centers, and black race/ethnicity. For patients diagnosed during 1996–2011, survival was lower for patients without health insurance and those who did not receive a hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT). The association between survival and sociodemographic and clinical factors were stronger among patients aged 30–39 years.

Conclusions Mortality after AML remained strikingly high and increased with age. To improve outcomes, strategies may include wider insurance coverage, treatment at hospitals affiliated with NCI-designated cancer centers and access to HSCT for high-risk patients. Collaborative clinical trials aimed to evaluate the efficacy and toxicity of novel agents for each subtype of disease are warranted.