Driver Mutations and Prognosis in 502 Patients with Essential Thrombocythemia

Background: In essential thrombocythemia (ET), ̴ 85% of patients harbor one of three “driver” mutations, with mutational frequencies of approximately 58%, 23% and 4%, for JAK2, CALR and MPL, respectively; ̴ 15% are wild type for all three mutations and are operationally referred to as “triple negative” (Blood. 2014;124:2507). In one of the original descriptions on CALR mutations, CALR-mutated patients with ET, compared to their JAK2-mutated counterparts, were reported to have better survival (NEJM. 2013;369:2379). However, this observation was not supported by subsequent studies while other reports suggested differential prognostic effect from distinct CALR variants in myelofibrosis (Blood. 2014;124:2465). In this study, we sought to clarify the impact of all three mutations, and CALR variants, on overall (OS), myelofibrosis-free (MFS) and leukemia-free (LFS) survival.

Methods: Patients were selected from our institutional database of myeloproliferative neoplasms, based on availability of mutational status inforomation. ET diagnosis was according to WHO criteria (Blood. 2009;114:937). Published methods were used for CALR, JAK2 and MPL mutation analyses and determination of CALR variants (Blood. 2014;124:2465). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was considered from the date of diagnosis to date of death or last contact. MFS and LFS calculations considered fibrotic or leukemic transformation events as uncensored variables, respectively. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for multivariable analysis.

Results: A total of 502 patients (median age 59 year; 61% females) met study eligibility criteria. Median levels of hemoglobin, platelet count and leukocyte counts were 13.7 g/dL, 893 x 10 (9)/L and 8.8 x 10(9)/L, respectively. All patients were annotated for JAK2/CALR/MPL mutations as well as CALR variants; 324 harbored JAK2, 111 CALR and 13 MPL mutations; 54 patients were triple-negative.  The 111 CALR-mutated patients included type 1 (n=55), type 2 (n=41) or other (n=15) CALR variants.

At a median follow-up time of 9.9 years, 172 (34.3%) deaths, 42 (8.4%) fibrotic progressions, 15 (3%) blast transformations and 12 (2.4%) polycythemic conversions were documented. In univariate analysis, survival data appeared significantly better in “triple negative” patients (median not reached) and inferior in MPL-mutated cases (median 8.5 years) whereas median survival times were similar for JAK2 (18.5 years) and CALR (22.1 years) mutated cases (Figure 1; p=0.0006). However, the difference in survival was no longer apparent (p=0.60) during multivariable analysis that included age and sex, which are known to differentially cluster with specific driver mutations; in the current study, median age/sex distributions for “triple-negative”, CALR, JAK2 and MPL mutated cases were 44 years/72% females, 48 years/46% females, 60 years/65% females, 70 years/46% females, respectively (p=<0.0001/0.0007). Of note, both age and sex were independently predictive of shortened survival. OS data remained unchanged when CALR-mutated patients were further stratified into type 1 vs type 2 vs other CALR variants, with similar survival data between the three CALR mutation groups (p=0.98).

In univariate analysis, MPL-mutated patients were significantly more prone to fibrotic progression (Figure 2; p=0.0083). The prognostic relevance of MPL mutations to MFS remained significant when age and sex were included in multivariable analysis (p=0.008). In the current cohort, univariate analysis identified lower hemoglobin and lower platelet count as the only other risk factors for fibrotic progression. Multivariable analysis confirmed the independent prognostic relevance of MPL mutations (p=0.003), lower hemoglobin level (p=0.0009) and lower platelet count (p=0.0094) for MFS. There was no significant difference in LFS among the four driver mutational categories (p=0.9): 9 events in JAK2, 6 in CALR, none in triple negative and none in MPL mutated cases. Among the 6 leukemic transformations in CALR-mutated cases, three were type 1, two type 2, and one other CALR variants.

Conclusions: Age- and sex-adjusted survival is similar among ET patients with JAK2 vs CALR vs MPL vs “triple-negative” mutational status. Survival is also similar between patients with distinct CALR variants. MPL-mutated patients with ET might be at a higher risk of fibrotic progression.