Transgender Women on Estrogen Have a Lower Burden of Thrombotic Events Compared to Cisgender Men: A Nationwide Hospital-Based Survey

Due to public recognition and acceptance, more transgender women are being prescribed gender-affirming estrogen therapy. Traditionally, sexual dimorphism has been shown to play a significant role in the pathophysiology of thrombotic phenomena. While genetic factors remain the key players in the divergent male and female phenotypes, limited information is available regarding the thrombo-vascular effects of estrogen therapy in transgender women. Furthermore, available data has been conflicting with respect to vascular outcomes in this specific population. Therefore, more evidence is required to understand the long-term effects of gender-affirming estrogen therapy. In the current study, we investigated the thrombotic outcomes of estrogen therapy in transgender women (male sex assigned at birth), in comparison to cisgender men and cisgender women.

We performed retrospective analyses using the TriNetX database that includes de-identified data for over 250 million patients across 76 certified healthcare organizations. We included all adults over the age of 18 years and excluded those with the presence of documented prothrombotic risk factors such as obesity, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, smoking, and cancer. Within the cohort of cisgender women, we excluded pregnancy and post-menopausal status. The thrombotic outcomes within the transgender cohort were recorded after the start of hormone replacement therapy. To account for thrombotic events, we used search terms such as acute myocardial infarction (MI), cerebral infarcts, pulmonary embolism (PE), and deep vein thrombosis (DVT).

We found 12,369 transgender women, 29,746,302 cisgender men, and 32,591,972 cisgender women that were eligible for our study. The transgender women had lower incidences of MI (0.14% vs. 0.38%, P<0.0001), cerebral infarcts (0.21% vs. 0.49%, P<0.0001), and DVT (0.33% vs. 0.47%, P<0.022) compared to cisgender men. The incidence of PE was comparable in both these groups (P=0.85). Furthermore, we observed that transgender women also experienced significantly lower incidences of cerebral infarcts (0.21% vs. 0.42%, P=0.0003) and a moderately decreased incidence of MI (0.14% vs 0.22%, P=0.062) compared to cisgender women. The incidence of venous thrombosis was similar in these two groups.

Overall, we observed a paradoxical decrease in rates of thrombotic events, suggesting that estrogen may play a protective role against the development of acute MI, cerebral infarction, and DVT in transgender women. Further investigation is required to understand the downstream targets that offer these cardioprotective effects. Importantly, our data may provide clinicians with reassurance that traditional vascular risks associated with estrogen may be less pronounced in males.